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Rate hike bets build as the 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest since 2007. Get the key developments to watch: PCE, payrolls, Micron earnings, Tesla deliveries and the SEC’s latest move on tokenized stocks.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 29 basis points last week to 5.24%, its highest since 2007, after Federal Reserve officials signaled further tightening and a five-year auction drew soft demand. Gold, credit and equities weakened with it, and fed funds futures now lean toward an October hike.
Wednesday's August PCE report and Friday's September payrolls are the last major inflation and labor readings before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. In equities, Micron reports on Wednesday after this year's rally, and Tesla's third-quarter deliveries arrive Friday with the stock below its long-term trend. Separately, the SEC's September 17 exemption sets conditions for US venues to trade tokenized shares on-chain.
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History says the September 16 hike isn't necessarily bearish - the S&P 500 rose in four of six tightening phases since 1994, and the Nasdaq 100 in five - with Gulf supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit the key channels to watch.

Markets enter the September 16 FOMC with a quarter-point hike 94.3% priced in and tightening implied into 2027, leaving the Fed's guidance the key question—alongside weekend xStocks price discovery and the launch of Kraken's xStocks Vaults.

A stronger-than-expected August payrolls print (162,000 vs. 53,000 est.) undercut the labor-softness case, trimming September hike odds to 55.7% from 64.3%, with Thursday's PPI, Friday's CPI, Apple's keynote and Oracle's results the next inputs for the rate outlook.
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