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Investors Weigh the FOMC Decision as Geopolitical tension and AI Development Slowdown Risks Collide
Markets enter the September 16 FOMC with a quarter-point hike 94.3% priced in and tightening implied into 2027, leaving the Fed's guidance the key question—alongside weekend xStocks price discovery and the launch of Kraken's xStocks Vaults.
Markets enter the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision with a quarter-point hike largely priced in. The September 14 futures snapshot implies a 94.3% probability under a binary model and further tightening into 2027. The central question for investors is how the Fed's projections and guidance compare with that higher rate path.
We compare the historical effective policy rate with futures-implied monthly averages, then track the repricing around inflation and employment releases. The report also examines weekend xStocks price discovery during Iran and AI slowdown discussions, and highlights the release of Kraken's new xStocks Vaults.
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Investors Await Critical CPI Report After Hot Jobs Report
A stronger-than-expected August payrolls print (162,000 vs. 53,000 est.) undercut the labor-softness case, trimming September hike odds to 55.7% from 64.3%, with Thursday's PPI, Friday's CPI, Apple's keynote and Oracle's results the next inputs for the rate outlook.
All Eyes Turn to The Labor Market after Hawkish Jackson Hole Keynote
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut kept rate hikes on the table, sending September odds to 64% and the 10-year to 4.76% — but the move stayed in rates as equities held firm, with August jobs (Sept 4) and CPI (Sept 11) now set to decide the meeting.
Crypto-Equities Outperform Headed Into Jackson Hole as Debasement Dynamics Reignite
Crypto-linked equities drove the week's rotation, capturing their largest share of xStocks volume since May as Bitcoin surged and the S&P 500 slipped, ahead of Warsh's first Jackson Hole address and NVIDIA earnings.
Important Information
xStocks are not available in the U.S. or to U.S. persons. Geo restrictions apply. Read Kraken's xStocks Risk Disclosure and the Base Prospectus and related Final Terms for more information. This content is partner enablement material, not investment advice. IPO-related content carries additional communication rules - see the brand kit before repurposing. In the EEA and most countries outside the US, IPO access on Kraken is via xStocks - tokenized securities issued by Backed Assets (JE) Limited pursuant to an EU-registered prospectus, providing price exposure only. xStocks are not equity and confer no voting or shareholder rights. Allocation is subject to underwriter decisions and is not guaranteed; any funds not allocated are returned. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Not available in the U.S. or to U.S. persons, or in the United Kingdom, Canada or Australia. Geo restrictions apply. xStocks are made available in the EEA by Payward Europe Digital Solutions (CY) Limited, regulated by CySEC (licence no. 342/17); and elsewhere by Payward Digital Solutions Ltd., regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority.