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Bank and Semiconductor Earnings set the Tone for Q4
Mixed bank results and Treasury yields above 5% set the stage for a pivotal week. Explore what CPI, ASML and TSMC earnings, and Warsh’s next remarks could mean for rate hike bets, bank profits and AI hardware.
Bank results opened on Tuesday with trading revenue doing most of the work: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup beat estimates, while JPMorgan fell short even as it raised its net interest income outlook. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, the question for the sector is whether higher rates add more to income than they cost in capital and buybacks.
That rate path runs through Wednesday's September CPI. Energy is expected to lift headline inflation while core stays subdued, and a firm core reading would lift October hike pricing from about one in five. ASML and TSMC then test whether AI hardware spending still supports semiconductor earnings, and Chair Warsh's discussion at the IMF meetings late Thursday is the last scheduled Fed appearance before the blackout.
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Investors Eye Geopolitical Tensions as the Fed Raises Rates
History says the September 16 hike isn't necessarily bearish - the S&P 500 rose in four of six tightening phases since 1994, and the Nasdaq 100 in five - with Gulf supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit the key channels to watch.
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